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Causal Analysis: Single Event Study
·
Module 2
Hypothesis Development: The Cuckold-Hotwife Case
1
Relational History and Contextual Factors
Map the socio-cultural context and the couple's relational history, distinguishing inert background conditions from potentially active causal factors.
2
Hypothesis 1: Unmet Sexual Needs
State Hypothesis 1 (unmet sexual needs) in precise, testable terms, operationalizing the specific needs and their fulfillment by the bull.
The Best Friend Effect: Trust, Threat, and Consent
State Hypothesis 2 (best friend trust) in precise, testable terms, specifying how the pre-existing bond reduces threat perception and enables consent.
4
Formulating Rival Hypotheses
Generate at least three distinct rival hypotheses for the outcome (e.g., pre-existing openness to experimentation, husband's voyeuristic desires, wife's independent assertiveness).
5
Classifying Hypotheses: Background, Trigger, or Sustaining Factor
Categorize each hypothesis (primary and rival) as a background condition, proximate trigger, or sustaining factor for the 5-year dynamic.
6
Evidence Fingerprints for Unmet Needs
For Hypothesis 1 (unmet needs), sketch at least three concrete, observable evidence fingerprints.
7
Evidence Fingerprints for Best Friend Trust
For Hypothesis 2 (best friend trust), sketch at least three concrete, observable evidence fingerprints.
8
Evidence Fingerprints for Rival Hypotheses
Sketch concrete evidence fingerprints for each of the generated rival hypotheses.
Previous module
Framing the Causal Puzzles
Next module
Hypothesis Development: The Boudoir Competition Case