The Screening Scandal

Extract base rates, sensitivity, and specificity from an app's promotional data and client complaint records.

Organize screening results into a 2x2 confusion matrix and compute all diagnostic accuracy metrics to assess the app's real-world reliability.

Apply Bayes' theorem to determine the true probability that a client flagged as 'compatible' is genuinely compatible, using both claimed accuracy and observed prevalence.

Simulate how the app's reliability changes as the true compatibility base rate varies, to identify the scenario most consistent with the volume of complaints.