Introduction
Welcome back to our module on "China and Global Governance." In our previous lesson, we analyzed China's broad evolution within the United Nations, from a cautious participant to a major contributor aiming to reshape global norms. We saw how Beijing uses the UN system to project influence and advance its vision of a "community of a shared future for mankind."
Today, we dive into a critical case study of this strategy in action. We will focus on one of the most complex and high-stakes areas of global diplomacy: climate change. This lesson addresses the learning outcome: Assess China's strategy in global climate negotiations.
China's role in climate politics is defined by a central paradox: it is simultaneously the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases and the world's leading investor in renewable energy. Understanding this duality is key to grasping its strategy. We will unpack how China balances its domestic imperatives—economic growth, energy security, and political stability—with its international ambition to be seen as a responsible global leader.
Given your background in diplomacy and governance, this lesson will focus on the political and strategic calculations behind China's climate policy, rather than the technical details of climate science.
1. The Evolution of China's Climate Policy: From Obstruction to Leadership
China's approach to climate negotiations has not been static. It has evolved significantly over the past three decades, shifting in response to international pressure, its growing economic power, and changing domestic priorities. To understand China's current strategy, it's essential to trace this historical path.
The academic paper below by Hongyi Lai provides an excellent framework for this analysis. It breaks down China's climate policy into six distinct periods and argues that domestic political and economic factors are the most powerful explanation for its shifting stances.
The evolution of China's climate change policy
This paper from the Journal of the British Academy, titled 'The evolution of China's climate change policy', offers a theoretically-grounded analysis of China's climate strategy from 1990 to 2021. It will help you understand the key drivers behind Beijing's decisions.
Please read the following parts of the paper. This is a detailed resource, so focus on the main arguments rather than every detail. Abstract and Introduction (pages 69-71): Get an overview of the paper's main argument and the key terms used (e.g., 'defensive', 'progressive'). IR and IPE theories... (pages 72-78): Skim this section to understand the three theoretical lenses the author uses: (neo-)realism/nationalism, liberalism, and domestic political economy. Pay closest attention to the 'Domestic political economy' explanation, as the author finds it most convincing. Explaining the evolution... during 1990–2011 (pages 79-87): Read this section to understand China's initial 'defensive' stance, its championing of 'common but differentiated responsibilities' (CBDR), and its gradual shift toward making voluntary commitments. Understanding climate change policy under Xi Jinping... (pages 87-93): Focus on the analysis of the swings in policy under Xi, from assertive to proactive and then to a more mixed or 'regressive' stance driven by economic concerns. As you read, consider this question: How do the priorities of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)—namely, leadership security and economic growth—shape China's international climate posture in each period?
As the paper demonstrates, China's climate policy has been a journey with several distinct phases:
- 1990–2005 (Utterly Defensive): China positioned itself as a leader of the developing world, staunchly defending its "right to develop." It pioneered and championed the principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities" (CBDR), arguing that developed nations, who were historically responsible for most emissions, should bear the primary burden of mitigation.
- 2006–2014 (Responsive but Assertive): As China became the world's largest emitter around 2006, international pressure mounted. Beijing began to acknowledge the problem and set domestic energy intensity targets. However, especially in Xi Jinping's early years, its international posture remained highly assertive, resisting binding commitments.
- 2015–2019 (Proactive and Progressive): This period marked a major shift. By consolidating his power, Xi sought to project global leadership. China played a crucial role alongside the U.S. in forging the Paris Agreement and criticized the Trump administration's withdrawal, positioning itself as a defender of the climate regime.
- 2020–Present (Mixed Signals): While Xi announced an ambitious goal of carbon neutrality by 2060, domestic actions have been mixed. Economic headwinds and energy security concerns have led to a renewed focus on coal and carbon-intensive stimulus projects, creating a "regressive" trend alongside progressive rhetoric.
The key takeaway from this history is that China's climate strategy is not driven by environmentalism alone. It is an instrument of statecraft, heavily influenced by the CCP's core priorities: regime legitimacy, economic performance, and the political security of its top leader.
2. The Contemporary Strategy: A Three-Pillar Approach
Today, China's strategy rests on three seemingly contradictory pillars: dominating green technology, maintaining fossil fuel security, and preparing for a warmer world.
Pillar 1: Becoming the Green-Tech Superpower
China has poured massive state resources into becoming the world's indispensable provider of clean energy technology. This move is driven by a desire to dominate the industries of the future, enhance its energy security, and gain geopolitical leverage.
The following video explores this paradox of China being both the biggest polluter and the clean energy leader.
China 'focusing on solutions' to combat emissions and climate change, analyst says • FRANCE 24
This France 24 report provides a concise overview of China's dual role in the climate crisis, highlighting its massive investments in renewable energy and its continued reliance on coal.
Please watch the segments from 00:03-02:39 and 04:39-06:49. Focus on: The sheer scale of China's renewable energy deployment (solar, wind, EVs). The multiple motivations behind this push: economic development, industrial strategy, trade, and energy security. The expert's assessment of China's indispensable role as both the largest emitter and the largest supplier of climate solutions.
As the video shows, China's clean energy revolution is not just an environmental policy; it's a core component of its industrial and economic strategy. By manufacturing the majority of the world's solar panels, wind turbines, and electric vehicle batteries, Beijing aims to make the global green transition dependent on Chinese supply chains.
Pillar 2: The Enduring Reliance on Coal
Despite its green ambitions, China's energy system remains deeply dependent on coal. The government continues to approve new coal-fired power plants, viewing them as a crucial backstop for ensuring energy security and powering its industrial economy, especially during periods of high demand or when renewables are intermittent.
This reliance on coal is the primary source of international criticism of China's climate policy. Chinese diplomats defend this by arguing that their energy transition must be gradual and orderly to avoid economic disruption and "keep the lights on"—a paramount concern for ensuring social stability.
Pillar 3: Prioritizing Adaptation over Mitigation
Perhaps the most pragmatic and overlooked pillar of China's strategy is its intense focus on adaptation. While Western discourse often centers on mitigation (cutting emissions), Beijing is making colossal investments to prepare for the inevitable impacts of a warmer planet. This suggests a belief that the world will likely fail to limit warming to 1.5°C.
Unpacking China's climate priorities
This article from the Brookings Institution, 'Unpacking China's climate priorities', sheds light on this crucial, often-underestimated aspect of Beijing's strategy.
Please read the introduction and the first three sections: 'Adaptation over mitigation', 'Living with floods and drought', and 'Investing in clean energy'. Focus on why China prioritizes adaptation and the massive scale of its engineering projects, such as the South-to-North water transfer system.
China's adaptation efforts, framed under concepts like "ecological civilization," involve massive, state-led engineering projects:
- The South-to-North Water Transfer Project, the largest in human history, to combat water scarcity in the north.
- Thousands of miles of sea walls to protect coastal megacities.
- The creation of "sponge cities" designed to absorb and reuse rainwater.
This focus on adaptation is a clear reflection of the domestic political economy driver: the CCP's primary goal is to ensure the survival and stability of the nation—and its own rule—in the face of environmental catastrophe.
3. Diplomacy in Practice: The Role of the Negotiator
Policy is not just abstract strategy; it is executed by diplomats. The career of Xie Zhenhua, China's chief climate negotiator for many years, personifies the country's evolving approach. He became famous for being a tough, table-banging defender of China's national interests, while also being a skilled pragmatist capable of bridging divides to forge agreements like the Paris accord.
How One Man Helped Transform China’s Climate Policy
This short Bloomberg profile of Xie Zhenhua, titled 'How One Man Helped Transform China’s Climate Policy,' illustrates how a key individual can navigate both domestic party priorities and international pressures.
Watch the video from the beginning to 00:48 and then from 02:40 to 05:15. Observe how Xie is described as both a 'tough negotiator' and someone who understands how to translate international pressures into Chinese policy.
Xie's career shows how China's climate diplomacy works in practice. It combines a firm defense of its core interests (development space, energy security) with a flexible, pragmatic willingness to engage and seek "win-win" outcomes when it aligns with its broader goal of being perceived as a responsible major power.
Conclusion
China's strategy in global climate negotiations is a masterful, if often contradictory, exercise in balancing competing priorities. It is not a simple story of a villain or a hero, but of a pragmatic power navigating immense internal and external pressures.
Key Takeaways:
- Domestically Driven: China's international climate posture is primarily shaped by the CCP's core domestic concerns: economic growth, energy security, and regime stability.
- A Paradoxical Strategy: China simultaneously pursues leadership in green technology while maintaining a heavy reliance on coal, creating a "two-faced" approach that both enables and complicates global climate action.
- Preparing for the Worst: A core, and often underestimated, pillar of China's strategy is its massive investment in climate adaptation, reflecting a pragmatic preparation for a world where mitigation efforts fall short.
- Instrumental Diplomacy: Beijing uses climate diplomacy to project an image of a "responsible great power," build coalitions with the Global South, and gain geopolitical influence, all while carefully safeguarding its development space.
Preview of the Next Lesson:
We will continue our exploration of China's role in global governance by shifting from the environmental to the digital realm. In our next lesson, we will analyze China's efforts to shape global norms related to internet governance and digital sovereignty, another critical domain where Beijing is challenging the existing order and promoting its own vision.