Greetings. In our previous lesson, we undertook a deep analysis of Pakistan's relationship with India, a dynamic defined by historical antagonism and the central dispute over Kashmir. We now pivot from the eastern to the western frontier, another border that is equally, if not more, consequential for Pakistan's national security and regional stability. The relationship with Afghanistan, though rooted in shared culture and history, has been a source of profound strategic anxiety for decades.
This lesson will guide you to assess Pakistan's bilateral relations with Afghanistan, focusing on security concerns and the post-2021 political landscape. The Taliban's return to power in August 2021 fundamentally reset the terms of engagement, transforming Pakistan's initial optimism into a period of intense hostility. As you've noted from CSS past papers, the situation in Afghanistan and its impact on Pakistan is a recurring and critical theme. Our focus will be on building a sophisticated analytical framework to understand the current impasse, Pakistan's policy responses, and the complex path forward.
A Legacy of Entanglement and Mistrust
To grasp the current crisis, it is essential to understand that the relationship between Pakistan and Afghanistan has been fraught with tension since 1947. Unlike the conflict with India, which is one of external rivalry, the Afghan issue is one of deep, often problematic, entanglement.
A report from the National School of Public Policy (NSPP) provides an excellent historical overview, breaking down the relationship into four distinct phases. This structure will help you contextualize the current events within a long-term historical trajectory.
[PDF] ROUNDTABLE DISCUSSION - National School of Public Policy
This document from a high-level roundtable offers a phase-wise historical analysis that is crucial for setting the stage. It covers the period from 1947 to the Taliban's return in 2021.
Please read the section titled "Background of Pakistan-Afghanistan Relations" on page 8. Focus on understanding the core issues that defined each of the first three phases: Phase I: Understand the initial sources of friction, namely Afghanistan's opposition to Pakistan's UN membership and the dispute over the Durand Line, which led to Kabul's support for the 'Pashtunistan' movement. Phase II: Grasp Pakistan's role as a 'Frontline State' during the Soviet-Afghan war, which marked its deep involvement in Afghan internal affairs. Phase III: Note the period of civil war, Pakistan's initial support for the first Taliban regime, and the post-9/11 era, which was characterized by accusations of a 'double game'.
This history created a legacy of deep-seated mistrust on both sides. For Afghanistan, there is a perception of Pakistan as a manipulative neighbour that has perennially interfered in its internal affairs. For Pakistan, there is a recurring frustration that its support and sacrifices, particularly in hosting millions of refugees, have never been reciprocated with security guarantees on its western border.
The Post-2021 Impasse: A Strategic Miscalculation
The Taliban's swift takeover of Kabul in August 2021 was initially seen in some Pakistani circles as a strategic victory. The expectation was that a friendly, ideologically aligned regime would finally address Pakistan's core security concern: the presence of the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) on Afghan soil.
This optimism was short-lived. Instead of declining, TTP attacks surged dramatically. A comprehensive report by the International Crisis Group, updated for February 2026, details this militant resurgence and the resulting breakdown in relations.
Pakistan: Responding to the Militant Surge on the Afghan ...
This report provides a meticulous analysis of the core security issue that defines the current relationship: the TTP. It examines the group's resurgence, the conflicting claims of both governments, and the deep ideological bonds between the TTP and the Afghan Taliban.
Please read Section II. Militancy in the Western Borderlands (starting on page 3). As you read, focus on these three subsections: A. The Militant Surge: Note the data on the sharp increase in militant violence in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa since 2021. B. Islamabad’s Claims and Kabul’s Denials: This section is crucial. It lays out the central arguments of both sides—Pakistan's accusation that the Afghan Taliban provide "sanctuary" and Kabul's retort that the TTP is a "homegrown Pakistani problem". C. TTP-Afghan Taliban Ties: Understand the historical, ethnic (Pashtun), and ideological (Deobandi) links that bind the two groups, including the TTP's oath of allegiance (bayat) to the Afghan Taliban's emir. This explains why Kabul is reluctant to act against them.
The core of the problem is an irreconcilable difference in perspective. Pakistan views the TTP as a terrorist group operating from safe havens in Afghanistan, and it expects the Taliban government to eliminate them as per its international commitments. The Afghan Taliban, however, see the TTP as fellow jihadists who fought alongside them against US/NATO forces. They are unwilling to take kinetic action against their allies and insist that Pakistan must resolve the issue through negotiation, as the TTP's grievances are with the Pakistani state.
Pakistan's Coercive Turn
Faced with mounting casualties and Kabul's inaction, Pakistan's policy has shifted dramatically from diplomatic engagement to coercion. This has manifested in three key areas: military action, economic pressure, and mass deportations.
The Crisis Group report provides a detailed account of this policy shift and its consequences.
Pakistan: Responding to the Militant Surge on the Afghan ...
These sections detail Pakistan's aggressive policy responses to the TTP threat.
Please read the following sections: III. Mounting Conflict Risks: This section analyzes the failure of negotiations and the escalation to armed conflict, providing details on the significant border clashes in October 2025 and the subsequent deadlocked talks mediated by Qatar and Türkiye. IV. Pressure Tactics and Punitive Actions: This section outlines the non-military levers of coercion. Pay close attention to the twin strategies of targeting the Afghan economy through border closures and the controversial deportation drive targeting millions of Afghan nationals.
The decision to conduct cross-border airstrikes, close vital trade routes like Torkham, and expel nearly two million Afghans marks a fundamental break from Pakistan's previous policy of strategic patience.
Analyzing the Taliban Mindset
To formulate a strong CSS argument, it's vital to understand why the Taliban are unwilling to accommodate Pakistan's demands, despite the pressure. An interview with Ambassador Asif Durrani, Pakistan's former Special Representative for Afghanistan, offers a candid assessment.
Pakistan–Afghanistan Tensions Explained | Expert Analysis
Ambassador Durrani provides a critical perspective on the Taliban's governing philosophy, which helps explain their defiance.
Watch the segment from "behave like a government". Focus on his key arguments: The Taliban continue to behave like a militia, not a government, and lack the "art of governance." They invoke a misinterpretation of the Pashtunwali code to justify giving shelter to the TTP, ignoring that the code does not protect murderers. Their policies, such as the ban on women's education, are driven by a tribal and culturally specific interpretation of Islam, not universal Islamic principles.
Ambassador Durrani's analysis suggests that the Taliban's actions stem from a deeply ingrained worldview that prioritizes ideological solidarity with fellow militants over the state-to-state obligations expected by Pakistan.
A House Divided: Pakistan's Internal Policy Fissures
Another layer of complexity, crucial for a nuanced exam answer, is that Pakistan's Afghan policy is not monolithic. There are significant internal disagreements, particularly between the federal government and the PTI-led provincial government in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the province most affected by the conflict.
The Crisis Group report lucidly explains these internal divisions.
Pakistan: Responding to the Militant Surge on the Afghan ...
This section adds a layer of sophistication to your analysis by highlighting the internal disagreements within Pakistan's policy-making circles.
Please read Section V. A House Divided. Focus on understanding the key points of friction: The civil-military disconnect in counter-insurgency operations. The differing approaches of the PML-N/PPP-led federal government (favouring a hard-line military approach) versus the PTI-led KP government (advocating for dialogue with Kabul). The complex views of Pashtun nationalist parties and civil society, who oppose both the TTP and heavy-handed military operations.
These internal divisions complicate a coherent national response and can be exploited by adversaries. They demonstrate that the challenge is not just external but also involves forging a unified strategy within Pakistan itself.
Conclusion
The relationship between Pakistan and Afghanistan has entered a dangerous new phase since 2021. What was once a partnership of convenience during the anti-Soviet and anti-US jihads has devolved into a bitter rivalry, with the TTP acting as the primary catalyst. Pakistan's initial hopes for strategic depth have been replaced by the reality of a "reverse insurgency" supported by elements within the Taliban regime.
- Key Takeaways:
- The post-2021 relationship is defined by Pakistan's security concerns over TTP safe havens in Afghanistan and the Afghan Taliban's refusal to act against their long-time allies.
- Pakistan has shifted from a policy of engagement to one of coercion, employing military strikes, economic sanctions, and the mass deportation of Afghan nationals as pressure tactics.
- The Afghan Taliban remain defiant, viewing the TTP as Pakistan's internal problem and showcasing a militia-like mindset that struggles with the responsibilities of state governance.
- Pakistan's response is undermined by internal political divisions, particularly between the federal government and the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa administration, hindering a cohesive national strategy.
- The path forward is fraught with difficulty, caught between the ineffectiveness of diplomacy and the high risks of military escalation.
In our next lesson, we will complete our survey of Pakistan's immediate neighbourhood by turning our attention to its southwestern border to assess Pakistan's bilateral relations with Iran, a relationship characterized by a mix of sectarian caution, economic potential, and complex regional balancing acts.