Hello again. In our last lesson, we explored the qualitative consequences of unchecked technological growth through Wirth's and Zawinski's Laws, seeing how systems can become bloated and inefficient. We ended by noting that this "feature fatigue" is a common experience.
Today, we transition from that qualitative observation to a quantitative model that describes this very phenomenon. This lesson introduces Claasen's Law, which posits that Usefulness = log(Technology). Your goal is to apply this law of diminishing returns to evaluate when adding more technology stops providing meaningful benefits, both in the technical process of bra fitting and in the interpersonal process of managing relationship communication.
Given your background in statistics and operations research, the logarithmic relationship between inputs and outputs is a familiar concept. Here, we will apply it not to manufacturing or finance, but to the perceived value of technological systems in your specific areas of interest.
Claasen's Law: The Logarithm of Progress
While Moore's Law describes the exponential growth of technological power, our lived experience of that progress doesn't feel exponential. We aren't a million times more productive or comfortable than we were 25 years ago. Dr. Theo Claasen proposed a law to explain this discrepancy: the usefulness we derive from technology increases linearly (or in steps) as the underlying technology advances exponentially. This defines a logarithmic relationship.
To understand Claasen's original formulation and reasoning, please read selections from his 1998 article where he introduces the concept.
[PDF] Semiconductor International Print Page
This article by Dr. Theo Claasen himself lays out the foundation for his law, contrasting exponential technological growth with the linear or stepwise increase in its practical utility.
Please read the following sections: Begin with the introduction, from the start of the article, to grasp the central thesis. Jump to the section titled "New law" and read from that point forward. Pay close attention to the concrete examples Claasen provides: telephone numbers, PC evolution, speech recognition, and TV software. These clearly illustrate how huge leaps in technical capacity yield what feel like simple, incremental steps in usefulness. Continue reading the next three paragraphs, where Claasen offers supporting observations, including an analogy to human perception, which is also logarithmic.
The core insight is that each new "order of magnitude" increase in technology is required to unlock the next linear step of utility. The first step—from no technology to some technology—provides a massive gain. Subsequent steps, built on ever-more-complex technology, provide smaller and smaller returns. This concept is often called the law of diminishing returns, a principle vividly illustrated in many fields, such as high-fidelity audio.
To get an intuitive feel for this, let's watch a short video explaining this exact effect in the world of high-end audio equipment.
HIGH END AUDIO vs BUDGET GEAR! The Law of Diminishing Returns in Hi-Fi
This video by Andrew Robinson, titled "HIGH END AUDIO vs BUDGET GEAR!", provides a perfect analogy for Claasen's Law. It discusses how, beyond a certain point, enormous increases in price and complexity yield only marginal, sometimes imperceptible, gains in sound quality.
Watch the first few minutes of the video, from the beginning. Notice how he frames the discussion around the point of diminishing returns—where you get the most "bang for your buck"—and how the pursuit of perfection beyond that point becomes exponentially more expensive for vanishingly small improvements. This is Claasen's Law in a real-world consumer context.
Application 1: Diminishing Returns in Bra Fitting Technology
Let's trace the evolution of bra fitting technology through the lens of Claasen's Law. The "technology" is the complexity of the fitting method, and "usefulness" is the accuracy of the fit and the resulting client satisfaction and business value.
The lingerie industry is grappling with high return rates due to poor fit, and technology is being positioned as the solution. Let's analyze the cost-benefit trade-off at each stage.
Boost Sales & Cut Lingerie Returns with AI Bra Fitting - Brarista
This guide for retailers explains how a modern AI-powered fitting tool, Brarista, works and the value it provides. This will serve as our "High Tech" example.
Please read the introductory section, the descriptions of Fit AI, Style AI, and Bra Education and Care AI, and the section on Delivering Measurable ROI. Focus on the specific metrics: reduced return rates, increased AOV, and customer service hours saved. These quantified benefits represent the "usefulness" we are measuring.
Now, let's plot the progression on Claasen's logarithmic curve:
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Step 1: Manual Fitting (The Baseline)
- Technology: A measuring tape and an expert's trained eye. The technology is minimal.
- Usefulness: Can be very high with a skilled fitter, but is inconsistent, not scalable, and unavailable for e-commerce.
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Step 2: Simple Online Size Calculator (First Technological Leap)
- Technology: A web form that takes two or three user-provided measurements (e.g., underbust, overbust) and applies a simple formula. The technological complexity is low.
- Usefulness: This is a huge leap from nothing for an online shopper. It provides a starting point and empowers the user. The jump in usefulness is massive compared to the minimal technological investment. This is the steep, early part of the logarithmic curve.
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Step 3: AI-Powered Chatbot (The 'Brarista' Leap)
- Technology: As described in the article, this involves a sophisticated system: a patent-pending database of 20,000 fits, vision AI, and a conversational interface. The technological complexity is orders of magnitude higher than a simple calculator.
- Usefulness: The article quantifies this leap. Return rates drop from a 20% average to 3%. AOV increases by up to 61%. This is a significant, measurable increase in utility. The investment in complex AI technology yields a strong, linear improvement in business outcomes. We are still on a rewarding part of the curve.
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Step 4: Full 3D Body Scanning App (Diminishing Returns Set In)
- Technology: Imagine the next step: an app that uses a phone's LiDAR scanner and photogrammetry to create a millimeter-perfect 3D model of the user's torso. This requires immense processing power, complex algorithms, and user effort (e.g., standing still while turning in a circle). The technological complexity is again exponentially higher than the AI chatbot.
- Usefulness: What is the likely gain? The fit accuracy might improve from Brarista's 80% to, say, 95%. This would further reduce returns, but not by the same dramatic margin as the previous step. The client experience might even be worse due to the cumbersome scanning process. The massive leap in technological investment yields a small, incremental improvement. We are now on the flattening part of Claasen's curve. The ROI plummets, just like spending $10,000 more on an amplifier for a 1% better sound.
Application 2: Communication Tools in a Vee Relationship
Let's apply the same logic to the tools used to manage a vee relationship between Anna (wife), Bob (husband, the hinge), and Charlie (Anna's boyfriend). The "technology" is the communication and organization system, and "usefulness" is the efficiency, clarity, and emotional ease it provides.
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Step 1: Verbal Agreements Only (The Baseline)
- Technology: None. All scheduling and emotional processing are done in face-to-face conversations.
- Usefulness: Prone to error, forgetfulness, and miscommunication. It's high-friction and low-reliability for complex scheduling.
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Step 2: Shared Calendar and Group Chat (First Technological Leap)
- Technology: A shared Google Calendar for dates and a Signal/WhatsApp group for logistics. The technology is simple, ubiquitous, and low-cost.
- Usefulness: A monumental improvement. Schedules are visible to all, reducing conflicts. Quick logistical questions are resolved efficiently. This simple tech stack solves the vast majority of organizational problems. This is the massive first step up the usefulness curve.
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Step 3: Structured Project Management Tools (The 'Over-optimization' Leap)
- Technology: The group adopts a tool like Trello or Asana. They create boards for "Date Ideas," "Relationship Agreements," "Unresolved Topics," and "Household Chores," with cards, assignees, and due dates. The technological complexity increases significantly.
- Usefulness: There is a small, incremental gain in organization. Topics are neatly sorted. However, the system adds overhead. Does a conversation topic need a "due date"? Does assigning a partner to a "Resolve Misunderstanding" card help? The gain in utility is minor and might be offset by the administrative burden. We are moving along the curve, and it's starting to flatten.
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Step 4: The All-in-One "Relationship OS" (Diminishing Returns)
- Technology: They subscribe to a hypothetical, hyper-complex platform. It integrates their calendars and chats, but adds sentiment analysis to their messages, tracks "emotional KPIs" via daily mood-logging, uses AI to suggest "optimal" date nights based on tracked data, and requires weekly "sprints" to review their relationship "backlog." This is an exponential leap in technological complexity.
- Usefulness: Claasen's Law predicts the outcome. The actual utility gain is negligible and likely negative. The system transforms relationship management into a bureaucratic chore. The pressure to quantify feelings ("Rate your compersion level: 1-5") creates anxiety and feels reductive. The time spent managing the tool exceeds the time saved. This is the flat part of the curve, where adding more technology actively reduces usefulness by introducing friction, complexity, and impersonal metrics, a perfect example of the McNamara Fallacy we will discuss later. The simple, effective calendar-and-chat system was the point of optimal return.
Conclusion
Claasen's Law provides a vital framework for assessing technology. It reminds us that "more advanced" does not automatically mean "more useful." The relationship is logarithmic, and the law of diminishing returns is unforgiving. True efficiency comes from finding the sweet spot on the curve—the point where the technology is just powerful enough to solve the core problem elegantly, without the burden of excessive complexity.
Key Takeaways:
- Claasen's Law: Usefulness increases logarithmically as technology grows exponentially. This means exponential investments are required for linear gains in utility.
- The Law of Diminishing Returns: The greatest gains in usefulness come from the initial adoption of technology. Subsequent, more complex additions yield progressively smaller benefits.
- Evaluating Technology: When considering a new tool, ask: Is this a major leap in capability that solves a core problem (the steep part of the curve), or is it a marginal improvement that adds significant complexity for little real-world gain (the flat part of the curve)?
In our next lesson, we will shift our focus from the quantitative utility of technology to its cultural and psychological impact. We'll explore Clarke's Three Laws, which deal with the limits of possibility, the nature of discovery, and our perception of any sufficiently advanced technology as "magic."