The 10/10/10 Rule for Better Decisions

What is the 10/10/10 Framework?

The 10/10/10 rule is a simple yet profound framework for gaining perspective. It forces you to step outside the heat of the moment and consider your choices from three distinct future vantage points.

To get a quick overview, let's start with a brief video.

As the video explains, the rule, developed by author Suzy Welch, asks you to consider the consequences of a decision in:

• 10 minutes
• 10 months
• 10 years

It's crucial to understand that these timeframes are directional guides, not literal deadlines. "10 minutes" stands for the immediate aftermath. "10 months" represents the foreseeable future, after the initial emotions have subsided. "10 years" signifies the long-term, big picture.

Let's get a bit more detail on the origin and the correct way to approach these timeframes.

The Psychology: Countering Present Bias

Why is this simple time-shifting exercise so effective? It directly combats a powerful cognitive bias known as present bias (or hyperbolic discounting). Our brains are wired to prioritize immediate gratification and avoid immediate pain, often at the expense of our long-term well-being. This is your intuitive System 1 at work, urging you to eat the cake, skip the gym, or react emotionally in a tense conversation.

The 10/10/10 framework acts as a circuit breaker. By forcing you to project yourself into the future, you engage your rational System 2. You move beyond the immediate emotional reaction ("How will I feel in 10 minutes?") and are forced to consider the more rational, downstream consequences ("How will this look in 10 months? And in 10 years?"). This brings your long-term values and goals, which are often silent in the heat of the moment, back into the decision-making process.

How to Apply the 10/10/10 Framework: A Step-by-Step Guide

Applying the framework is a straightforward process of inquiry.

Based on the resources, here is the process synthesized into three steps:

1. Frame Your Dilemma as a Question: As Suzy Welch emphasizes, clarity is essential. Isolate the exact decision you're struggling with. For example: "Should I accept this new job offer?" or "Should I sell this underperforming stock?"

2. Collect Information Across the Timeframes: Answer the three core questions for your dilemma. Be honest and thorough.

   • What are the consequences in 10 minutes? (Immediate feelings, reactions, relief, or discomfort)
   • What are the consequences in 10 months? (Mid-term outcomes, progress towards goals, new realities setting in)
   • What are the consequences in 10 years? (Long-term impact on your life, career, finances, and alignment with your core values)

3. Analyze and Align with Your Values: Review the consequences you've listed. Which set of outcomes best aligns with the person you want to be and the life you want to live? This final step connects the rational analysis back to your personal goals.

Practical Application: Career and Investment Decisions

Let's apply this to scenarios relevant to your goals.

Scenario 1: A Career Decision

Imagine you receive a job offer. It's a 15% raise but requires you to work on a project you're not passionate about and has a reputation for poor work-life balance. Your current job is stable and enjoyable, but the pay is stagnant. The question: "Should I take the new job?"

• 10 Minutes: You feel excited about the salary bump and the "win" of getting an offer. You might also feel anxious about resigning from your current role and stepping into the unknown.
• 10 Months: The extra income is noticeable in your bank account, which helps with your financial goals. However, you might be feeling burnt out, unmotivated by the work, and missing the culture of your old company. Your work-life balance has deteriorated.
• 10 Years: Will this job have been a valuable stepping stone to something better, or a draining detour? Did the extra money compound into significant wealth, or was it offset by the negative impact on your health and relationships? Does this move you closer to or further from your ultimate career aspirations?

This process doesn't give you a "right" answer, but it illuminates the trade-offs far more clearly than a simple pro/con list.

Scenario 2: An Investment Decision

This framework is particularly useful for managing the emotions tied to investing. As the Larksuite article confirms in its FAQ section, 10/10/10 is highly applicable to personal finance.

Let's take a common crypto/investment dilemma. Your investment in a particular altcoin is down 40%. You're feeling anxious. The question: "Should I sell now and cut my losses?"

• 10 Minutes: Selling would bring immediate relief from the anxiety of watching the price drop. You'd have cash back, but you'd also feel the sting of loss aversion (a concept from our first module), having locked in a significant loss.
• 10 Months: Where will the market be? If it has recovered, you will likely experience intense regret and FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out). If the project has failed and gone to zero, you'll feel relieved and smart for getting out. This forces you to think about the project's fundamentals beyond the current price action.
• 10 Years: In a decade, how significant will this single investment be to your overall financial picture? Will the capital you saved by selling have been deployed into a much better long-term asset? Or will this altcoin have become a major player, making your early exit a costly mistake? This long-term view helps contextualize the current pain and encourages strategic thinking over panicked reaction.

A Crucial Nuance: The Long-Term Isn't Always Everything

A common pitfall is to assume the 10-year perspective is always the most important. An analytical mind appreciates edge cases and balanced perspectives. The framework is a tool for insight, not a command to always sacrifice the present for the future.

The story of Pete Turkel is a sobering reminder that life is lived in the present and mid-term, too. The goal of the 10/10/10 rule isn't to always choose the option with the best 10-year outlook, but to make your decision with a clear-eyed understanding of the consequences across all time horizons.

Conclusion

Today, we've added the 10/10/10 framework to your decision-making toolkit. It's a qualitative, perspective-shifting tool that complements the quantitative analysis of the weighted decision matrix.

Key Takeaways:

• The 10/10/10 framework involves assessing the consequences of a decision in 10 minutes, 10 months, and 10 years.
• It's a powerful method for countering present bias and reducing emotional impulsivity by forcing a long-term perspective.
• The process involves framing a clear question, gathering data across the three timeframes, and analyzing the outcomes against your personal values.
• The long-term view is a critical input, but it should not automatically override short- and mid-term considerations. A balanced perspective is key.

In our previous lesson, we learned to compare options. In this lesson, we learned to project the consequences of an action into the future. But what if that future contains risks we haven't considered? In our next lesson, we will learn how to proactively identify and mitigate risks before making a major decision, particularly in investing, by using a pre-mortem analysis.